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Monday, March 20, 2023

Foreign Influence


Because of another job talk, class will end at 12:05.  Student hour will be 1:15-2:15.

By Friday, email me your next paper topic:
https://gov106.blogspot.com/2023/03/over-break-each-of-you-should-choose.html  If you have questions or need suggestions, just let me know.
For Wednesday
Ben Freeman, "Foreign Funding of Think Tanks in America." Center for International Policy, Jan 2020, 

In lieu of excerpts from Misfire, read this article by its author, Tim Mak:
===========================================================

Open Secrets

The LDA EXCEPTION  Private entities like companies and nonprofits that would otherwise be required to follow FARA registration requirements may choose to instead register as a lobbyist with the House Clerk's Office and Secretary of the Senate so long as the agent has engaged in at least some lobbying activities that fall under the Lobbying Disclosure Act of 1995 (LDA).

Media and Malign Foreign Influence
Flattering interviewees (an actual email to yours truly):
Dear John , 
I hope all is well. 
 I would like to introduce myself again. I would  like to introduce myself.  My name is XXX  I’m an international producer for Russian Television -  Channel One  that based in Moscow, Russia. We also have offices in New York, Washington DC and Los Angeles.  “Chanel One” is a number one broadcasting company in Russia and also very popular in Russian Community around the world.  We have over 250 million audience in 190 Countries.  Channel One is as big in Russia as CNN and FOX in US.
We have been working on our weekly news show "Sunday times" about Donald Trump's meeting with Putin. Our network's CEO Mr. Ernst asked me to contact you and include you in our show. He really would like to have you as a part of our show. You opinion is very important for Russian audience.
...

You are very well known in Russia. Russian politicians and regular people look up to you as a peer where they watch your interviews and follow you on social media for inspiring messages. It would be such an honor and  pleasure to meet you in person and film an interview with you. 



Manafort hired and worked increasingly closely with a Russian national, Konstantin Kilimnik. Kilimnik is a Russian intelligence officer. Kilimnik became an integral part of Manafort's operations in Ukraine and Russia, serving as Manafort's primary liaison to Deripaska and eventually managing Manafort's office in Kyiv. Kilimnik and Manafort formed a close and lasting relationship that endured to the 2016 U.S. elections. and beyond.
...
The Committee found that Manafort's presence on the Campaign and proximity to Trump created opportunities for Russian intelligence services to exert influence over, and acquire confidential information on, the Trump Campaign. Taken as a whole, Manafort's high level access and willingness to share information with individuals closely affiliated with the  Russian intelligence services, particularly Kilimnik and associates of Oleg Deripaska, represented a grave counterintelligence threat.

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Business II

Research paper and simulation (roster and process)

ESG politics

For a week from Monday:  Manafort video and excerpt from January 6 report

Drutman's theory (p. 7):


The Powell Memo

In Showdown at Gucci Gulch, Jeffrey H. Birnbaum and Alan S. Murray quote Reagan aide Richard Darman saying: “I couldn’t help thinking that if I were a lobbyist, I would stand in the hallway with a big sign saying EVERYONE INTERESTED IN KILLING THIS BILL, PLEASE MEET IN THE NEXT CORRIDOR … There would have been an enormous rush, and they would have seen the power of their collective action.” Nearly three decades later, all the lobbyists have read that book, and they know how to build coalitions.

(What happened to Birnbaum?  See here.)


Review of why companies and trade associations lobby (Drutman, p. 75)

Collective (Industry).......................................Selective (Company)

Proactive..Medicare drug coverage.................Coverage of a specific drug

Reactive..Keep industry tax break......
.............Keep company contract

The case of hedge funds (Cigler ch. 11)

Drutman, p. 80:
  1. Contacting Congressional staffers directly to present your point of view
  2. Identifying allies in Congress who might serve as “champions” for your cause
  3. Monitoring developments closely
  4. Contacting members of Congress directly to present your point of view 
  5. Consulting with members of Congress and/or their staff to plan legislative strategy 
  6. Entering into coalitions with other organizations
  7. Consulting with other organizations to plan legislative strategy 
  8. Helping to draft legislation ("model laws")
  9. Contacting members of the executive branch directly to present your point of view 
  10. Presenting research results or technical information
  11. Contacting undecided members 
  12. Writing position papers
  13. Mobilizing constituents to contact their representatives 
  14. Talking to people from the press and the media [also social media
  15. Contacting members who are opposed to your position 
  16. Testifying at hearings 
  17. Attending political fundraisers
  18. Consulting with members of the executive branch to plan legislative strategy 
  19. Organizing political fundraisers 
  20. Using issue advertising

Research Assignment

Over break, each of you should choose an interest group or lobbying firm. For the remainder of the course, you will become our "resident expert" on that organization.  April 3 and 5, you will make very brief oral presentations. 

Examples could include:
  • AARP
  • GOA
  • Norfolk Southern
  • ACLU
  • Pfizer
  • Exxon
  • SEIU
  • AMA
  • Autism Speaks
These examples are a tiny sample of what you could choose.

By April 14, write an essay analyzing the organization that you have chosen. In your answer, please answer these questions:
  • Whom does the organization represent?
  • How does the organization make decisions?
  • What are its top current policy priorities? Tell how it is seeking to change or preserve certain statutes, rules, or practices.
  • What strategy is it pursuing? Inside game or outside game? Legislative, executive or judicial action?
  • In light of the 2022 election, what are its prospects for success over the next year?
Instructions:
  • Document your claims. I expect thorough research, not just a summary of a couple of secondary sources. If you have not done so already, watch my research lecture.
  • Essays should be typed (12-point), double-spaced, and no more than six pages long. I will not read past the sixth page. As always, please submit papers to the Sakai dropbox as Word documents, not pdfs or Google docs.
  • Cite your sources with endnotes in Chicago/Turabian style. Endnote pages do not count against the page limit.
  • Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you.
  • I will be happy to comment on outlines and oral presentations, but I will not be able to read full drafts.
  • Due date is 11:59 PM on April 14. I reserve the right to dock papers a gradepoint for one day's lateness, a full letter grade after that.

Monday, March 6, 2023

Business I

 Mike Whatley

For Wednesday

 Domains" (Cigler ch. 10) The influence effort may not aim directly at a specific public policy decision.

Civil society domain

Management domain

Drutman's theory (p. 7):


The Powell Memo

In Showdown at Gucci Gulch, Jeffrey H. Birnbaum and Alan S. Murray quote Reagan aide Richard Darman saying: “I couldn’t help thinking that if I were a lobbyist, I would stand in the hallway with a big sign saying EVERYONE INTERESTED IN KILLING THIS BILL, PLEASE MEET IN THE NEXT CORRIDOR … There would have been an enormous rush, and they would have seen the power of their collective action.” Nearly three decades later, all the lobbyists have read that book, and they know how to build coalitions.

(What happened to Birnbaum?  See here.)


Review of why companies and trade associations lobby (Drutman, p. 75)

Collective (Industry)..................Selective (Company)

Proactive..Medicare ................Coverage of a specific drug
                    presc. drug.

Reactive..Keep industry 
..../......Keep company contract
                    tax break


Drutman, p. 80:
  1. Contacting Congressional staffers directly to present your point of view
  2. Identifying allies in Congress who might serve as “champions” for your cause
  3. Monitoring developments closely
  4. Contacting members of Congress directly to present your point of view 
  5. Consulting with members of Congress and/or their staff to plan legislative strategy 
  6. Entering into coalitions with other organizations
  7. Consulting with other organizations to plan legislative strategy 
  8. Helping to draft legislation 
  9. Contacting members of the executive branch directly to present your point of view 
  10. Presenting research results or technical information
  11. Contacting undecided members 
  12. Writing position papers
  13. Mobilizing constituents to contact their representatives 
  14. Talking to people from the press and the media [also social media
  15. Contacting members who are opposed to your position 
  16. Testifying at hearings 
  17. Attending political fundraisers
  18. Consulting with members of the executive branch to plan legislative strategy 
  19. Organizing political fundraisers 
  20. Using issue advertising

Thursday, March 2, 2023

An Example of an Interest Group Award

A.J. Taylor at KIOW-FM:
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) received the 2022 “Congressional Leadership Award” this week for his continuous support and advocacy on behalf of individuals with autism. Grassley led the bipartisan effort to reauthorize Kevin and Avonte’s Law with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.). The bill assists communities in locating individuals with autism, Alzheimer’s and other conditions that cause them to wander from safety.

The award, given by Autism Speaks, a non-profit autism awareness organization, is reserved for individuals who have championed steadfast advocacy for individuals with autism and their families. Grassley has prioritized the safety and quality of life for individuals with autism by empowering communities and caregivers to provide adequate care. The award was presented to Grassley by Keith Wargo, the president and CEO of Autism Speaks. Also in attendance was Josh Cobbs, Autism Speaks’ Director of Employment Initiatives, and the Johnson Family from West Des Moines who have long worked to raise awareness for individuals with autism.Senator Grassley receives the Autism Speaks 2022 Congressional Leadership Award. (Official U.S. Senate photo by Rosa Pineda)

I’m humbled to receive this recognition. Legislation like Kevin and Avonte’s law is instrumental in reuniting families, and Autism Speaks is a vital ‘boots on the ground’ organization that facilitates this care. We will continue working to help individuals with autism reach their full potential while honoring those we have lost, like Kevin Curtis Wills of Jefferson, Iowa,” Grassley said.

“Autism Speaks is grateful to Senator Grassley for championing legislation that prioritizes the safety of the autism community. His efforts have led to millions of dollars being delivered to first responders and local organizations in communities across the country to prevent the frightening and sometimes tragic consequences of wandering. We recognize the significance of this in creating a more inclusive world where all individuals with autism can feel supported and understood, and are deeply appreciative,” Wargo said.

Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Elections and Campaign Money IV

A protest: spot the familiar face!

For next time, Cigler 10 and the Drutman reading.  Class ends today at 12:05.

Reviewing writing

Reviewing Research

Interest Group Specific


Timing and "social welfare" side of dark money budgets (Cigler 129).

Outside spending and "Organized Biltz Campaigns" (Schatzinger  122)

Kavanaugh and Moveon.org (note slightly different versions for different states)







Digital ads (Cigler 132)  and microtargeting (Schatzinger 147-149)

Monday, February 27, 2023

Elections and Campaign Money III

For Wednesday, read Cigler, ch. 7.

Next Monday, Mike Whatley `11 of the National Restaurant Association.

Questions on the assignment?

  • Endnotes
  • Sources:  do not always take self-descriptions at face value.
Updates on reverse lobbying:
Explaining Open Secrets

Why give to disclosing groups rather than dark money?
  • Many givers (Adelson) want to get credit.
  • Some givers are leery of dark money.
  • Late Super PAC disclosure (Schatzinger) sometimes makes it a distinction without a difference.


"[The] main criterion for super PACs and their independent expenditures remains the competitiveness of races." (Schatzinger 119)
Congressional Leadership Super PAC (Schatzinger 128-131)


Advertising
  • Ads matter less than people think.
  • The effect is inversely proportional to the level of the office at stake.  That is, ads have more effect in a race for school board than for US president.
  • All other things being equal, negatives have more effect than positive.  Why?  Cognitive biases.

Foreign Influence (more later in the course!)