Investments:
Guns and Opinion
- Historical opinion data
- The Intensity Gap (Spitzer 166-167)
- From NYT:
But David Farmer, who led the Maine effort for universal background checks in 2016, said that supporters of gun rights can be particularly persuasive once a concrete proposal is unveiled. In Maine, polling support for the measure declined between introduction and the final vote, before failing, 52-48.
“We know for a fact we lost the argument at the kitchen table and the bar and the bowling alley,” he said. “The gun enthusiasts were talking to their friends and relatives and neighbors. They felt about it in a way that was so passionate that they won those one-on-one encounters, and they were very successful in bringing in people to their side.”
The enthusiasm of gun rights activists doesn’t show up just in personal conversations. Over the last few decades, they have been more likely to speak to their legislators or give money to gun-related political groups, according to research from the Pew Research Center. Those actions have sent a signal to legislators that there is robust opposition even to laws that show strong public support in polls.Parties and Gun
The Red Shift:
Timeline (See also Spitzer 227)
1968
LBJ pushes or the Gun Control Act of 1968. It prohibits all convicted felons, drug users and the mentally ill from buying guns; raises the age to purchase handguns from a federally licensed dealer to 21; and expands the licensing requirements to more gun dealers and requires more detailed record-keeping.
1986
Congress passes the Firearm Owners Protection Act (Spitzer 191-195). Prompted by complaints that the federal government has been abusing its power to enforce gun laws, the law limits the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms from inspecting gun dealers more than once a year, with follow-up inspections allowed only if multiple violations are found. An amendment is also passed banning civilian ownership of machine guns manufactured after May 19, 1986. Weapons made and registered before that date are not affected. The law specifically forbids the government from creating a national registry of gun ownership. How did it pass a Democratic House? (Spitzer 193) There were still a lot of Southern Democrats.
Bill Clinton briefly threads the needle:
1993
Bill Clinton signs the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act of 1993 -- named after White House press secretary James Brady, who was permanently disabled from an injury suffered during the attempted murder of President Ronald Reagan. (Brady died in 2014) The law, which amends the GCA, requires that background checks be completed before a gun is purchased from a licensed dealer, manufacturer or importer. It establishes the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which is maintained by the FBI.
1994
The Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 produces a 10-year federal ban on the manufacture of new semi-automatic assault weapons. The law lists 19 weapons with the features of assault rifles, including the AR-15, certain versions of the AK-47, the TEC-9, the MAC-10 and the Uzi -- weapons of drug gangs. The act also bans large-capacity ammunition magazines, limiting them to 10 rounds. The law does not apply to weapons that were already in legal possession, and there are easy ways to adapt new weapons to avoid the prohibitions. See a U.S. Department of Justice Fact Sheet.
2003
In a victory for the NRA, Congress passes the Tiahrt Amendment to a federal spending bill. The amendment, proposed by Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.), prohibits law enforcement from publicly releasing data showing where criminals bought their firearms.
2004
The 10-year sunset provision of the assault weapons ban runs its course, and the law is not renewed by Congress. Repeated efforts to renew the ban fail.
2005
President George W. Bush signs the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act, which grants gun manufacturers immunity from civil lawsuits filed over crimes committed with firearms. The law killed a legal strategy being pursued by gun-control advocates to hold manufacturers responsible for the negative effects of their products. A similar strategy had proved effective against tobacco companies.
What about 2018?
Evidence from Internet? Meh!
Bad news for gun control people: only 10% called gun policy the key issue. Good news for gun control people: 70% of that group voted Democratic. A fair number of D ads featured the issue:
What about 2018?
Evidence from Internet? Meh!
Bad news for gun control people: only 10% called gun policy the key issue. Good news for gun control people: 70% of that group voted Democratic. A fair number of D ads featured the issue:
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